Hurricane Patricia Is Historically Unprecedented - And May Be Connected To El Niño

Let me start by saying that I am not a fan of “hype” in weather so when I say that I am very concerned about the potential human toll that Hurricane Patricia may have on Mexico that is real. Other colleagues agree. Dr. Cary Mock, Professor of Geography at the University of South Carolina, posted on his Facebook FB +2.94% page on Thursday evening the following:

Hurricane Patricia, if it makes landfall as a major hurricane near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, could be a huge historical event…

Hurricane Patrica. Courtesy of NOAA.

Hurricane Patricia is just the latest in a record-shattering 2015 East Pacific Hurricane and Typhoon Season, and El Nino may actually be playing a role in all of it (more on that later). But Patricia is different. The storm is now the strongest hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere.  Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at The University of Miami and Hurricane Expert for the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang,  at the University of Miami captures it in a Facebook Post:

History in the making… Hurricane Patricia has just become the strongest hurricane on record in terms of wind speed and central pressure anywhere in the East Pacific OR the Atlantic! Sustained winds are at 200mph (175kts), and the pressure is down to 880mb. And, it will be making landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, Mexico later today. Patricia was just a tropical storm 30 hours ago…

For context that is up there with the strongest tornadic winds on the Enhanced Fujita scale (EF5). Bob Henson of Weather Underground reminds us that Patricia is in rare air:

Patricia’s rate of strengthening since Wednesday has been truly remarkable. In a mere 36 hours, Patricia’s official NHC rating went from minimal tropical storm (40 mph) to Category 5 hurricane–among the most rapid intensification rates one might expect in a hurricane anywhere. NHC’s advisory on Thursday night placed Patricia in the elite group of 15 Northeast Pacific hurricanes that have reached Category 5 strength since 1959